Lakewood, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

860
FXUS65 KBOU 282017
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
217 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread and prolonged critical fire weather conditions will
  be present in the high country through at least Monday due to
  warm, dry and windy conditions.

- Little change in the forecast pattern through the middle part of
  next week. The only exception will be for a chance of
  thunderstorms over the plains on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Much like yesterday, the main concern in the forecast remains a
prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather conditions,
especially across the higher elevations. Southwesterly flow aloft
remains in place as a positively tilted upper trough axis
continues to edge closer to the forecast area. Unsurprisingly,
deep mixing has already developed across the high country, with
Kremmling recently reporting a T/Td of 79/19, with an 11% relative
humidity and a 34 mph gust. The Red Flag Warning will remain in
effect across most of the high country until later this evening.
Meanwhile, a pronounced Denver Cyclone has developed across the
southern Denver metro, which has left most of the I-25 corridor in
an easterly flow that`s limited the amount of surface heating so
far. That cyclone should lift a bit further north, but it will
likely mean temperatures along/north of I-70 will be a bit cooler
than originally forecast this afternoon due to the weaker mixing.

By tonight, a mid-level cold front is expected to push across the
northern high country into the northeastern plains late this
evening into the overnight hours, though the accompanying surface
front is rather weak. Meanwhile, smoke from ongoing wildfires
across Utah and western Colorado is likely to make it to the
region sometime this evening and continue through tomorrow
morning. Most HRRR/RAP cycles develop a fairly substantial plume
across the northwestern half of the CWA this evening which slowly
disperses and pushes southeastward overnight into Monday
morning... and we`ll likely see a pretty hazy sunset/sunrise
tonight/tomorrow.

The forecast this week has remained almost unchanged. A few
shortwaves will pivot around the longwave trough over the
northwestern US, while ridging builds across the Ohio Valley/Mid
Atlantic this week. In general, that leaves dry southwesterly flow
aloft in place across our forecast area. Temperatures across the
plains look to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. With
700-500mb flow still around 25-40kt, that should translate to
gusty winds (especially across the high country) each afternoon,
meaning that critical fire weather conditions are likely to
continue through the week.

While the pattern will remain generally dry, there are a couple of
chances for some precipitation across the plains. The most likely
period is late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night, with
isolated/scattered showers and a few storms also possible as we
get closer to next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Wind direction will be tricky this afternoon due to the expected
development of a cyclone. Winds at this time are easterly over the
region with a hint of southeast winds starting arrive to the
southeast Denver metro area, closest to KAPA. At the same time,
winds over this area are starting to curve to the northeast as they
interact with the terrain.

There are two possible scenarios this afternoon given recent model
trends and current observations. The first one would involve a
cyclone forming N/NE of Denver, and this is the scenario that most
models have trended towards. With a cyclone to the north, KDEN would
experience a shift to SSW winds around 21Z and then a shift to west
winds around 00Z as the cyclone migrates eastwards. Under this
scenario, winds at KBJC would shift NE to NW as the afternoon
progresses. The second scenario would occur if a cyclone continues
to form over or just east of KAPA. If this occurs, winds at KDEN
would stay easterly through the afternoon before turning
counterclockwise as the cyclone migrates to the east. KAPA would
shift to the NE and then turn counterclockwise as well, while KBJC
experiences a light to NE to N wind.

Otherwise, the other point of concern for this TAF period is the
transport of smoke from the wildfires in western Colorado. Although
plumes will continue to evolve over the next couple of hours, it
looks like smoke could cause slant-range visibility impacts as early
as 00Z this evening with the highest smoke concentrations
arriving near 06Z. A weak cold front may help push some of the
smoke southwards around sunrise, but smoke aloft is expected to
continue and worsen as the day progresses on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions have been observed across a large
portion of the high country so far this afternoon. In fact, it`s
drier across many of the high mountain valleys than this time
yesterday, with a couple of sites starting to fall to around 10%
RH, with several RAWS also reporting 40-45 mph wind gusts. These
conditions are likely to persist through the rest of the afternoon
and evening, and no changes were made to today`s Red Flag Warning.

While a cold front is expected to bring some very modest relief to
the region overnight tonight, a continued southwesterly flow aloft
will lead to elevated/critical fire weather conditions yet again
on Monday. Given recent models underestimating the amount of
mixing/drying during the day, we lowered Td/RH a bit again... and
have a large swath of critical fire weather conditions forecast
across the higher elevations, especially along/south of I-70. The
previous Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning across the same zones.

As we look towards the upcoming week, unfortunately there is very
little change in the large scale pattern. Elevated to critical
fire weather conditions look likely to continue across most of the
higher elevations each day, with the potential for some of the
warmest/driest air to reach the area by late in the week. There is
also some concern about fuels status along the northern Foothills
and most of the I-25 corridor/Palmer Divide... and if fuels status
changes over the next few days, some fire weather highlights may
need to be expanded into those regions going forward.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ211>214-216-
218.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ212>214-216.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...AA
FIRE WEATHER...Hiris